Look up Jimmy Howard's performance last night against the Oilers. Conveniently, the Pensblog added commentary.
I took the liberty of looking up some stats for the Wings, thinking they couldn't be as bad as their 4-7 record. However, it looks like they are. Osgood and Howard rank 30th or worse in the league in both GAA and SP. Detroit has given up 41 goals, good for tying for 2nd worst in the league, although Edmonton has played one more game. LA is one of the worse teams with 42 GA, but they've played 3 more than the Red Wings. Toronto is... Toronto.
If the Wings can't play D well, what can they do? Score? They're in the middle of scoring prowess, but they're out Filpulla (broken wrist) and Johan Franzen (Bear AIDS). Combined with the players they lost abroad and to free agency last season, where are the goals to counterbalance the shoddy goaltending/defense going to come from? I believe the Wings make the playoffs every year until proven otherwise, but seeing them without home ice in the first round would be incredibly weird.
This is something that's been discussed in Pittsburgh lately: the talk of being like the '84 Oilers. Winning the Cup has already accomplished at least the superficial portion of the comparison. But the alternate theory seems far more credible - the Penguins are the new Red Wings.
Under Bylsma, individual talents have still been able to succeed, but if you don't think the new Pens are all about team play and getting the win, no matter how dirty, you're delusional. Tight-checking, swarming, (during the playoffs, especially with Gill) borderline interfering style of play? Check. Reliable goaltender with an excellent defense around him? Check. 1 or 2 year rentals alongside stars with long term contracts? Check again. Stanley Cup season followed by regular season dominance? Check and mate.
And while Pens fans hate the Red Wings, is there a team you'd rather be in the modern NHL? The Devils always do better than expected in the regular season, then fold under pressure in the playoffs. The Avs haven't been a threat for like 8 years, though they're off to a great start in this one. The Ducks are a mess right now. Those are the only 3 teams that even approached dynasty in the last 15 years. Red Wings after the lockout:
05-06: Lost in 1st round to 8th seeded Edmonton
06-07: Lost in conference finals to eventual champion Anaheim
07-08: Won Stanley Cup
08-09: Lost in Stanley Cup finals
That's 9 playoff round wins in 4 years. The Penguins have 7, the Hurricanes have 6, the Ducks have 5, and Buffalo has 4. Those are the only other playoff teams even worth mentioning since the lockout. Teams could do far worse than being the Red Wings.
- Matt
Friday, October 30, 2009
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Cooley Injured
Racistfootballteamname tight end Chris Cooley was injured last night on MNF. The only reason I mention it is because he's the douche who trashed Crosby last year in February. If you need further proof of his douchiness:
That's a popped collar under his jersey. Ugh.
Anyway, in honor of his failure at life, here's the great editing job by a commenter on the Pensblog giving his Wikipedia page the facts it needed: (Click an image to enlarge)
On a similar topic, are the Redskins the worst team in pro football? Stay tuned.
- Matt
That's a popped collar under his jersey. Ugh.
Anyway, in honor of his failure at life, here's the great editing job by a commenter on the Pensblog giving his Wikipedia page the facts it needed: (Click an image to enlarge)
On a similar topic, are the Redskins the worst team in pro football? Stay tuned.
- Matt
Monday, October 26, 2009
Beisbol?
Like Kurt Russell uncovering an ancient evil in a disaster movie, the Yankees hissed an evil paean and won the AL pennant for the first time since 2003. The painful part of this is now I have to root for a Philly team to stop the most hated team in sports. Still, even the asshole of America winning looks better than Mark Traitora hoisting whatever gay trophy MLB uses these days.
I digress. Orioles Hangout had an excellent article about Jeremy Guthrie and his late season surge/improvement. I feel a small amount of attachment to Guts, but with a Pirates-esque losing streak going on, I feel like everyone outside of Jones, Markakis and Wieters are, and should be, expendable. Trembley at least showed the fire for winning on the last game when, rather than leaving Melmo out so he could be subbed in and given a standing ovation in the top of the inning, he pulled him out for a pinch hitter that ultimately allowed the O's to win in extra innings. I'd love to see the Orioles win again, and if that means many beloved members of the team need to go, so be it. There, I said it.
On an unrelated matter, I was thinking about the average intelligence of fans of the various major leagues, and I came up with this unofficial list:
1. Baseball
2. Hockey
3. Soccer*
4. Basketball
5. NFL
The asterisk next to soccer indicates the difference between American and foreign soccer fans. Soccer is the NFL of the rest of the world, and the vast majority of fans behave accordingly. Although to the NFL's credit, fatal riots are exceedingly rare. Since Americans are brought up with peewee soccer and virtually no professional opportunities, it remains a niche sport on the major league level, albeit a fast-growing one. Niche sports often have a more educated (at least within the context of the game) fanbase, and reasonable to boot.
Baseball took number 1 for me because it's really the only one that even deserves the mantle of having "intelligent" fans. It has its fair share of stupid, fairweather fans, but to actually follow it every night requires patience and at least a semblance of an easygoing nature. The most common complaint here in Yinzertown is "I can't watch an entire baseball game". If the Bucs began winning, people would be all about baseball without knowing if their team won or lost the previous night.
Maybe labeling fans of certain sports "intelligent" is unfair. Fairweather fans muddle up every sport, and since the NFL is the most popular of the 5 in this country, it produces the loudest and dumbest voices. It could be a convenient excuse for me to berate the intelligence of Steelers fans, who I know are monumentally dumb. And for the increased ratings and fandom that the "new" NHL is bringing, I become increasingly worried about the kinds of people who follow it. If it were up to me, it would remain a northern niche sport, but in today's corporate TV culture, there's no chance it could sustain itself on such a model.
In short, the patrons demand the gladiator be executed. Who am I to deny them?
- Matt
I digress. Orioles Hangout had an excellent article about Jeremy Guthrie and his late season surge/improvement. I feel a small amount of attachment to Guts, but with a Pirates-esque losing streak going on, I feel like everyone outside of Jones, Markakis and Wieters are, and should be, expendable. Trembley at least showed the fire for winning on the last game when, rather than leaving Melmo out so he could be subbed in and given a standing ovation in the top of the inning, he pulled him out for a pinch hitter that ultimately allowed the O's to win in extra innings. I'd love to see the Orioles win again, and if that means many beloved members of the team need to go, so be it. There, I said it.
On an unrelated matter, I was thinking about the average intelligence of fans of the various major leagues, and I came up with this unofficial list:
1. Baseball
2. Hockey
3. Soccer*
4. Basketball
5. NFL
The asterisk next to soccer indicates the difference between American and foreign soccer fans. Soccer is the NFL of the rest of the world, and the vast majority of fans behave accordingly. Although to the NFL's credit, fatal riots are exceedingly rare. Since Americans are brought up with peewee soccer and virtually no professional opportunities, it remains a niche sport on the major league level, albeit a fast-growing one. Niche sports often have a more educated (at least within the context of the game) fanbase, and reasonable to boot.
Baseball took number 1 for me because it's really the only one that even deserves the mantle of having "intelligent" fans. It has its fair share of stupid, fairweather fans, but to actually follow it every night requires patience and at least a semblance of an easygoing nature. The most common complaint here in Yinzertown is "I can't watch an entire baseball game". If the Bucs began winning, people would be all about baseball without knowing if their team won or lost the previous night.
Maybe labeling fans of certain sports "intelligent" is unfair. Fairweather fans muddle up every sport, and since the NFL is the most popular of the 5 in this country, it produces the loudest and dumbest voices. It could be a convenient excuse for me to berate the intelligence of Steelers fans, who I know are monumentally dumb. And for the increased ratings and fandom that the "new" NHL is bringing, I become increasingly worried about the kinds of people who follow it. If it were up to me, it would remain a northern niche sport, but in today's corporate TV culture, there's no chance it could sustain itself on such a model.
In short, the patrons demand the gladiator be executed. Who am I to deny them?
- Matt
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
NHL Power Rankings Revisited
First, vampire movies need to stop. This can not be stressed enough.
Next, you'll see some adjustments in the tiers. Things change, deal with it.
The Favorite
1. Pittsburgh Penguins
Name another team playing in their class right now. And Malkin and Crosby haven't even gotten started yet.
Powerhouses
2. Colorado Avalanche
3. Calgary Flames
4. New York Rangers
New York slips after losing in a blowout to the Sharks, but clearly not by much. Colorado has demonstrated a most admirable resiliency this season and is looking like the early favorite of the West. Calgary has overcome its two bad losses to re-establish control.
Contenders
5. Buffalo Sabres
6. Chicago Blackhawks
7. Ottawa Senators
8. Columbus Blue Jackets
9. Washington Capitals
10. San Jose Sharks
11. Phoenix Coyotes
These teams showed they can compete with the best in the past week, and despite glaring weaknesses for all, their strengths are often enough to overcome them. I had no idea where to put the Sharks, but their big win over the Rangers convinced me to stick them as number 10.
Too Early to Call Contenders
12. Atlanta Thrashers
13. Edmonton Oilers
Have their schedules been easy or are they just lucky? Perhaps they're legit. I think not. But for now, they're as hard as anyone to beat.
Achilles' Heel
14. Los Angeles Kings
15. Philadelphia Flyers
16. Dallas Stars
17. St. Louis Blues
18. New Jersey Devils
19. Anaheim Ducks
20. Detroit Red Wings
Just when you think these guys are playoff material for sure, they go and collapse on you. I feel so wrong about the Kings it's not funny. Good to see the Flyers and Red Wings ranked so low, though.
Injuries Aren't the Only Problem
21. Vancouver Canucks
22. Boston Bruins
Hard divisions, star players out, and a general lack of heart despite early season predictions of success? Bad formula if you ask me.
Flash in the Pan
23. Tampa Bay Lightning
24. Carolina Hurricanes
Barring a real hot stretch like last season, these teams are going to be Eastern Conference bottom dwellers.
Power Outage
25. Montreal Canadiens
26. Florida Panthers
27. Nashville Predators
Scoring has become an issue for these clubs, and more disturbingly, the defenses haven't been good either.
Time Is Running Out
28. Minnesota Wild
29. New York Islanders
If they don't get some wins soon, they're going to fade very fast. Minnesota has a better chance, they've only played one home game thus far. They're 1-0-0 there.
A New Low
30. Toronto Maple Leafs
Yes, they're as bad as they look.
Send disagreements to the comments section, where I can tell you you're wrong.
- Matt
Next, you'll see some adjustments in the tiers. Things change, deal with it.
The Favorite
1. Pittsburgh Penguins
Name another team playing in their class right now. And Malkin and Crosby haven't even gotten started yet.
Powerhouses
2. Colorado Avalanche
3. Calgary Flames
4. New York Rangers
New York slips after losing in a blowout to the Sharks, but clearly not by much. Colorado has demonstrated a most admirable resiliency this season and is looking like the early favorite of the West. Calgary has overcome its two bad losses to re-establish control.
Contenders
5. Buffalo Sabres
6. Chicago Blackhawks
7. Ottawa Senators
8. Columbus Blue Jackets
9. Washington Capitals
10. San Jose Sharks
11. Phoenix Coyotes
These teams showed they can compete with the best in the past week, and despite glaring weaknesses for all, their strengths are often enough to overcome them. I had no idea where to put the Sharks, but their big win over the Rangers convinced me to stick them as number 10.
Too Early to Call Contenders
12. Atlanta Thrashers
13. Edmonton Oilers
Have their schedules been easy or are they just lucky? Perhaps they're legit. I think not. But for now, they're as hard as anyone to beat.
Achilles' Heel
14. Los Angeles Kings
15. Philadelphia Flyers
16. Dallas Stars
17. St. Louis Blues
18. New Jersey Devils
19. Anaheim Ducks
20. Detroit Red Wings
Just when you think these guys are playoff material for sure, they go and collapse on you. I feel so wrong about the Kings it's not funny. Good to see the Flyers and Red Wings ranked so low, though.
Injuries Aren't the Only Problem
21. Vancouver Canucks
22. Boston Bruins
Hard divisions, star players out, and a general lack of heart despite early season predictions of success? Bad formula if you ask me.
Flash in the Pan
23. Tampa Bay Lightning
24. Carolina Hurricanes
Barring a real hot stretch like last season, these teams are going to be Eastern Conference bottom dwellers.
Power Outage
25. Montreal Canadiens
26. Florida Panthers
27. Nashville Predators
Scoring has become an issue for these clubs, and more disturbingly, the defenses haven't been good either.
Time Is Running Out
28. Minnesota Wild
29. New York Islanders
If they don't get some wins soon, they're going to fade very fast. Minnesota has a better chance, they've only played one home game thus far. They're 1-0-0 there.
A New Low
30. Toronto Maple Leafs
Yes, they're as bad as they look.
Send disagreements to the comments section, where I can tell you you're wrong.
- Matt
Monday, October 19, 2009
...
Season over. 3.5 games back in week 6, and this isn't last year's Broncos. No way the Chargers beat out two of the Texans, Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Patriots, Jets, or even the bloody Dolphins for the wild card. I'm glad I can only watch two more of the games on tv this season, it's been a shitty one.
Fire Norv.
- Matt
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
NHL Power Rankings
I have a long history of mocking power rankings. They are stupid. And yet, useful. So take little stock in these, they're more of a "tier" system than individual number rankings. And if you think the Cup is awarded this early on in the year... you're probably a Rangers/Flyers fan.
The Juggernauts (...bitch)
1. Pittsburgh Penguins
2. Buffalo Sabres
3. New York Rangers
4. Los Angeles Kings
The true titans of the NHL right now. Pittsburgh gets the edge over the two New York teams for, well, beating New York. Buffalo gets the edge over NYR for being undefeated in regulation. Tonight's match between LA and NY should be a good one, and Buffalo visits the Pens Nov. 1st.
The Contenders
5. Chicago Blackhawks
6. Colorado Avalanche
7. Philadelphia Flyers
8. Columbus Blue Jackets
9. Calgary Flames
I originally had CAL as the number 2 team, but come-from-ahead losses to #5 and #8 ruined that. These are all teams that, barring a rash of injuries, will make the postseason this year. Maybe not strong enough with their current rosters to win the Cup, but certainly able to under the right circumstances.
Achilles' Heel
10. Washington Capitals
11. Phoenix Coyotes
12. New Jersey Devils
13. San Jose Sharks
14. Ottawa Senators
15. St. Louis Blues
16. Detroit Red Wings
17. Edmonton Oilers
Each one could be a contender, but has a crippling weakness that, at this point in the season, would make them all first-round fodder. Whether it's a lack of scoring (PHX, DET, NJD, OTT), terrible defensive corps (WAS), subpar goaltending (STL, DET again), or some intangible that helps them lose random games (SJ, EDM), they ain't good enough for the ultimate prize... yet.
Disappointments
18. Vancouver Canucks
19. Boston Bruins
20. Anaheim Ducks
21. Carolina Hurricanes
22. Montreal Canadiens
Picked to do real damage in the NHL this year, the only things they've wrecked are their fans' self-esteem. I think all 5 were in TSN's top 10 at the beginning of the year. At this point, it would barely be a surprise if every one missed the playoffs. But good teams respond from slow starts, so time will tell.
Pretenders
23. Tampa Bay Lightning
24. Nashville Predators
25. Atlanta Thrashers
This category needs no explanation. Let's see where these teams are in a month.
Overachievers
26. New York Islanders
27. Dallas Stars
While not good by any means, they're not nearly as bad as people thought they'd be. NYI has this 2005-06 Penguins thing going on about racking up OT losses, though.
Bad
28. Minnesota Wild
Thought they could be a surprise team this season. Just more proof you don't build a team through free agency.
Awful
29. Florida Panthers
Why is there even a team in Miami?
Forfeit
30. Toronto Maple Leafs
It's so nice to see Brian Burke fail. Trying to become the Flyers Lite, and getting outworked by every "softer" team you face? That's just miserable personnel planning.
Maybe another one of these in a month, I don't care.
Oh, and LA Angels over Yankees in 6, LA Dodgers over Phillies in 7.
- Matt
The Juggernauts (...bitch)
1. Pittsburgh Penguins
2. Buffalo Sabres
3. New York Rangers
4. Los Angeles Kings
The true titans of the NHL right now. Pittsburgh gets the edge over the two New York teams for, well, beating New York. Buffalo gets the edge over NYR for being undefeated in regulation. Tonight's match between LA and NY should be a good one, and Buffalo visits the Pens Nov. 1st.
The Contenders
5. Chicago Blackhawks
6. Colorado Avalanche
7. Philadelphia Flyers
8. Columbus Blue Jackets
9. Calgary Flames
I originally had CAL as the number 2 team, but come-from-ahead losses to #5 and #8 ruined that. These are all teams that, barring a rash of injuries, will make the postseason this year. Maybe not strong enough with their current rosters to win the Cup, but certainly able to under the right circumstances.
Achilles' Heel
10. Washington Capitals
11. Phoenix Coyotes
12. New Jersey Devils
13. San Jose Sharks
14. Ottawa Senators
15. St. Louis Blues
16. Detroit Red Wings
17. Edmonton Oilers
Each one could be a contender, but has a crippling weakness that, at this point in the season, would make them all first-round fodder. Whether it's a lack of scoring (PHX, DET, NJD, OTT), terrible defensive corps (WAS), subpar goaltending (STL, DET again), or some intangible that helps them lose random games (SJ, EDM), they ain't good enough for the ultimate prize... yet.
Disappointments
18. Vancouver Canucks
19. Boston Bruins
20. Anaheim Ducks
21. Carolina Hurricanes
22. Montreal Canadiens
Picked to do real damage in the NHL this year, the only things they've wrecked are their fans' self-esteem. I think all 5 were in TSN's top 10 at the beginning of the year. At this point, it would barely be a surprise if every one missed the playoffs. But good teams respond from slow starts, so time will tell.
Pretenders
23. Tampa Bay Lightning
24. Nashville Predators
25. Atlanta Thrashers
This category needs no explanation. Let's see where these teams are in a month.
Overachievers
26. New York Islanders
27. Dallas Stars
While not good by any means, they're not nearly as bad as people thought they'd be. NYI has this 2005-06 Penguins thing going on about racking up OT losses, though.
Bad
28. Minnesota Wild
Thought they could be a surprise team this season. Just more proof you don't build a team through free agency.
Awful
29. Florida Panthers
Why is there even a team in Miami?
Forfeit
30. Toronto Maple Leafs
It's so nice to see Brian Burke fail. Trying to become the Flyers Lite, and getting outworked by every "softer" team you face? That's just miserable personnel planning.
Maybe another one of these in a month, I don't care.
Oh, and LA Angels over Yankees in 6, LA Dodgers over Phillies in 7.
- Matt
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Modern Era Cup Wins
Needed a hockey article at some point. To answer your question, I haven't written much about the Pens because their play speaks for themselves.
Here's a compilation of number of Stanley Cups won since the 1967-68 season, when the league size doubled. This is not to say Cups awarded before then don't count, but it's harder to judge recent success with the all-time totals. Tiebreakers given to teams that most recently won the Cup:
1. Montreal Canadiens - 10
Holy shit.
2. Edmonton Oilers - 5
Gretzky. Speaking of him, I heard "A King's Random" blew.
3. Detroit Red Wings - 4 (last in '08)
But ask a Wings fan and they'll say 11.
4. New York Islanders - 4 (last in '83)
Surprised? I'm not. Don't move the Isles, I need Strong Island to keep suffering at the hands of the Pens for their '93 upset.
5. Pittsburgh Penguins - 3 (last in '09)
Woooo
6. New Jersey Devils - 3 (last in '03)
Yet another Atlantic division team. The Penguins have had players from all 3 of these Cup victories on their team (Guerin, Sykora, Rupp).
7. Colorado Avalanche - 2 (last in '01)
Every team in the Northwest division has been involved in a Stanley Cup Final, if you count the North Stars as Minnesota instead of Dallas. Only Colorado has never lost in the SCF.
8. Philadelphia Flyers - 2 (last in '75)
Broad Street Buttholes.
9. Boston Bruins - 2 (last in '72)
Isn't it nice to have at least one sport not dominated by New York or Boston in the last 20 years? I think it is. But it's also probably the reason ESPN hates the NHL.
10. Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks - 1 ('07)
Liked the old unis better.
11. Carolina Hurricanes / Hartford Whalers - 1 ('06)
Liked the Whalers better.
12. Tampa Bay Lightning - 1 ('04)
No one would hold it against you for forgetting this Final.
13. Dallas Stars / Minnesota North Stars (contradicted myself) - 1 ('99)
Buffalo is still pissed.
14. New York Rangers - 1 ('94)
Still wish the Pens had faced the Flying Plates of Spaghetti in the Finals that year. Sigh.
15. Calgary Flames - 1 ('89)
Gary Roberts was on this club. Awesome.
16. 2004-05 Lockout - 1
That's all of them. The following teams have made the Finals but failed to win the Cup in modern history:
St. Louis Blues - 3
Chicago Black Hawks / Blackhawks - 3
Buffalo Sabres - 2
Minnesota North Stars (counting as Wild's predecessors now) - 2
Vancouver Canucks - 2
Los Angeles Kings - 1
Florida Panthers - 1 (swept)
Washington Capitals - 1 (swept)
Ottawa Senators - 1
- Matt
Here's a compilation of number of Stanley Cups won since the 1967-68 season, when the league size doubled. This is not to say Cups awarded before then don't count, but it's harder to judge recent success with the all-time totals. Tiebreakers given to teams that most recently won the Cup:
1. Montreal Canadiens - 10
Holy shit.
2. Edmonton Oilers - 5
Gretzky. Speaking of him, I heard "A King's Random" blew.
3. Detroit Red Wings - 4 (last in '08)
But ask a Wings fan and they'll say 11.
4. New York Islanders - 4 (last in '83)
Surprised? I'm not. Don't move the Isles, I need Strong Island to keep suffering at the hands of the Pens for their '93 upset.
5. Pittsburgh Penguins - 3 (last in '09)
Woooo
6. New Jersey Devils - 3 (last in '03)
Yet another Atlantic division team. The Penguins have had players from all 3 of these Cup victories on their team (Guerin, Sykora, Rupp).
7. Colorado Avalanche - 2 (last in '01)
Every team in the Northwest division has been involved in a Stanley Cup Final, if you count the North Stars as Minnesota instead of Dallas. Only Colorado has never lost in the SCF.
8. Philadelphia Flyers - 2 (last in '75)
Broad Street Buttholes.
9. Boston Bruins - 2 (last in '72)
Isn't it nice to have at least one sport not dominated by New York or Boston in the last 20 years? I think it is. But it's also probably the reason ESPN hates the NHL.
10. Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks - 1 ('07)
Liked the old unis better.
11. Carolina Hurricanes / Hartford Whalers - 1 ('06)
Liked the Whalers better.
12. Tampa Bay Lightning - 1 ('04)
No one would hold it against you for forgetting this Final.
13. Dallas Stars / Minnesota North Stars (contradicted myself) - 1 ('99)
Buffalo is still pissed.
14. New York Rangers - 1 ('94)
Still wish the Pens had faced the Flying Plates of Spaghetti in the Finals that year. Sigh.
15. Calgary Flames - 1 ('89)
Gary Roberts was on this club. Awesome.
16. 2004-05 Lockout - 1
That's all of them. The following teams have made the Finals but failed to win the Cup in modern history:
St. Louis Blues - 3
Chicago Black Hawks / Blackhawks - 3
Buffalo Sabres - 2
Minnesota North Stars (counting as Wild's predecessors now) - 2
Vancouver Canucks - 2
Los Angeles Kings - 1
Florida Panthers - 1 (swept)
Washington Capitals - 1 (swept)
Ottawa Senators - 1
- Matt
MLB Postseason "Preview"
Actually, it's just predictions and shot-from-the-hip musings.
NLDS: Colorado Rockies vs. Philthadelphia Philthies
Personal bias notwithstanding, I like the Rox to win. I hate myself for using "Rox" as their team name, but it's easier to type. Both have wounded pitching staffs (staves?), so I have to go with the hotter team. Plus, no one's won back to back titles since the Yankees in '00.
Colorado in 4
NLDS: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
This might be closer than people think. Then again, it might not. Wackiness abounds.
Los Angeles in 4
ALDS: Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Twins are riding hot, but the Yankees did win a fuckton of games this season, even up until the end of the year. This is probably the year the Yanks piss us all off and win their first postseason series since 2004. It should be close, though.
New York in 5
ALDS: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
At the beginning of the year, I predicted the Red Sox would take both the AL Wild Card and the World Series title. After seeing only two of my eight predicted playoff teams fail miserably (Oakland A's and New York Mets), you'd expect me to ride the Red Sox all the way to the title. Not this year. Finally LA will get their revenge on Boston for all those early-round exits. However, this postseason wouldn't be complete without insufferable coverage of a possible NY-BOS ALCS, so I'm thinking it goes down to the wire.
Los Angeles in 5
Can't do the second round for real until we know which 4 teams are in it. I think the Dodgers beat the Angels for the WS title. Which, strangely, is exactly what I thought last year. It would also guarantee a Pittsburgh / LA split in 2009 titles. Like that means anything.
- Matt
NLDS: Colorado Rockies vs. Philthadelphia Philthies
Personal bias notwithstanding, I like the Rox to win. I hate myself for using "Rox" as their team name, but it's easier to type. Both have wounded pitching staffs (staves?), so I have to go with the hotter team. Plus, no one's won back to back titles since the Yankees in '00.
Colorado in 4
NLDS: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
This might be closer than people think. Then again, it might not. Wackiness abounds.
Los Angeles in 4
ALDS: Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Twins are riding hot, but the Yankees did win a fuckton of games this season, even up until the end of the year. This is probably the year the Yanks piss us all off and win their first postseason series since 2004. It should be close, though.
New York in 5
ALDS: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
At the beginning of the year, I predicted the Red Sox would take both the AL Wild Card and the World Series title. After seeing only two of my eight predicted playoff teams fail miserably (Oakland A's and New York Mets), you'd expect me to ride the Red Sox all the way to the title. Not this year. Finally LA will get their revenge on Boston for all those early-round exits. However, this postseason wouldn't be complete without insufferable coverage of a possible NY-BOS ALCS, so I'm thinking it goes down to the wire.
Los Angeles in 5
Can't do the second round for real until we know which 4 teams are in it. I think the Dodgers beat the Angels for the WS title. Which, strangely, is exactly what I thought last year. It would also guarantee a Pittsburgh / LA split in 2009 titles. Like that means anything.
- Matt
Monday, October 5, 2009
Why I Will Never Be Confused With Nostradamus
Back in February, I made predictions about the O's hitters. I'm all about holding people accountable for their predictions, which is why Will won't ever let me forget how I picked Seattle to win the NFC this year.
[Optimism]
At first glance, the only smart thing I did was refrain from predicting pitching stats. Let's see how I did: (Bold stats mean better than predicted)
1. Brian Roberts: 110 R, 179 H, 56 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR, 79 RBI, 74 BB, 112 SO, 30 SB, .283 AVG, .356 OBP
2. Adam Jones: 83 R, 140 H, 22 2B, 3 3B, 19 HR, 70 RBI (exact), 36 BB, 93 SO, 10 SB, .277 AVG, .335 OBP
Note: only played 3/4 of the season, still nearly beat every prediction I had. Beast.
3. Nick Markakis: 94 R, 188 H, 45 2B, 2 3B (exact), 18 HR, 101 RBI, 56 BB, 98 SO, 6 SB, .293 AVG, .347 OBP
Whoops.
4. Aubrey Huff: 59 R, 129 H, 30 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 85 RBI, 51 BB, 87 SO, 0 SB, .241 AVG, .309 OBP
Note: Traded mid-season. I blame the Tigers.
5. Melvin Mora: 44 R, 117 H, 20 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 34 BB, 60 SO, 3 SB, .260 AVG, .321 OBP
Note: Missed around 35 games. Still, terrible prediction. See ya, Melmo.
6. Luke Scott: 61 R, 116 H, 26 2B, 1 3B, 25 HR (exact), 77 RBI, 55 BB, 104 SO, 0 SB, .258 AVG, .340 OBP (exact)
Note: By far the closest prediction I managed.
7. Cesar Izturis: 34 R, 99 H, 14 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 18 BB, 38 SO, 12 SB, .256 AVG, .294 OBP
Note: Only played 3/4 of the season.
8. Gregg Zaun: 34 R, 68 H, 17 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 31 BB, 48 SO, 0 SB, .260 AVG, .345 OBP (exact)
Note: Replaced by Wieters. In addition to playing half the season, he was traded to Tampa Bay.
9. Felix Pie: 38 R, 67 H, 10 2B (exact), 3 3B, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 24 BB, 58 SO, 1 SB, .266 AVG, .326 OBP
Note: Only played 101 games this season.
So what can you take away from this? I had reasonably good predictions, if you ignored what I thought Markakis and Mora would accomplish this year. I predicted 75 wins, the O's got 64. Fortunately, I don't get paid to do this.
In the end, I thought it was a fitting cap for the Orioles' season for them to win on back to back walk-off bunts. It's been a truly bizarre year, one that I thought might never end, and at last it has. It coincides perfectly with hockey season as well.
Divisional Playoff pick:
MIN over DET by 5 (10-5)
- Matt
[Optimism]
At first glance, the only smart thing I did was refrain from predicting pitching stats. Let's see how I did: (Bold stats mean better than predicted)
1. Brian Roberts: 110 R, 179 H, 56 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR, 79 RBI, 74 BB, 112 SO, 30 SB, .283 AVG, .356 OBP
2. Adam Jones: 83 R, 140 H, 22 2B, 3 3B, 19 HR, 70 RBI (exact), 36 BB, 93 SO, 10 SB, .277 AVG, .335 OBP
Note: only played 3/4 of the season, still nearly beat every prediction I had. Beast.
3. Nick Markakis: 94 R, 188 H, 45 2B, 2 3B (exact), 18 HR, 101 RBI, 56 BB, 98 SO, 6 SB, .293 AVG, .347 OBP
Whoops.
4. Aubrey Huff: 59 R, 129 H, 30 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 85 RBI, 51 BB, 87 SO, 0 SB, .241 AVG, .309 OBP
Note: Traded mid-season. I blame the Tigers.
5. Melvin Mora: 44 R, 117 H, 20 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 34 BB, 60 SO, 3 SB, .260 AVG, .321 OBP
Note: Missed around 35 games. Still, terrible prediction. See ya, Melmo.
6. Luke Scott: 61 R, 116 H, 26 2B, 1 3B, 25 HR (exact), 77 RBI, 55 BB, 104 SO, 0 SB, .258 AVG, .340 OBP (exact)
Note: By far the closest prediction I managed.
7. Cesar Izturis: 34 R, 99 H, 14 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 18 BB, 38 SO, 12 SB, .256 AVG, .294 OBP
Note: Only played 3/4 of the season.
8. Gregg Zaun: 34 R, 68 H, 17 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 31 BB, 48 SO, 0 SB, .260 AVG, .345 OBP (exact)
Note: Replaced by Wieters. In addition to playing half the season, he was traded to Tampa Bay.
9. Felix Pie: 38 R, 67 H, 10 2B (exact), 3 3B, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 24 BB, 58 SO, 1 SB, .266 AVG, .326 OBP
Note: Only played 101 games this season.
So what can you take away from this? I had reasonably good predictions, if you ignored what I thought Markakis and Mora would accomplish this year. I predicted 75 wins, the O's got 64. Fortunately, I don't get paid to do this.
In the end, I thought it was a fitting cap for the Orioles' season for them to win on back to back walk-off bunts. It's been a truly bizarre year, one that I thought might never end, and at last it has. It coincides perfectly with hockey season as well.
Divisional Playoff pick:
MIN over DET by 5 (10-5)
- Matt
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