Just detailed the likelihood of teams making the playoffs in my last real post, now it's time to see how close the other teams are to the brink, whether good or bad.
Cleveland and Kansas City are already eliminated.
A win by Jacksonville eliminates Buffalo and Oakland. A loss doesn't immediately eliminate Oakland, but it does eliminate Buffalo based on conference record.
A Houston and/or Tennessee loss and Jacksonville win eliminates them from the playoffs. Their abysmal division records come into play here.
The following can't have their fates altered this week, but let's talk about them anyway:
Baltimore, Miami, New York and Pittsburgh are effectively eliminated by 1 more loss. It's still technically possible to clinch at 9-7 or 9-6-1, but the odds are stacked against them. Baltimore with the 6-4 AFC record has the best shot of the bunch to get in at 9-7.
Two Denver wins, two Jacksonville losses, and a Miami loss clinch a playoff berth for the Broncos. At 10-6 with a minimum of a 7-5 conference record, and the fact that only one of PIT/BAL can get to 10-6, they would achieve no worse than 6th.
Three Jacksonville wins clinch a playoff berth. That would ensure no worse than 9-3 in the AFC. Two wins would give the Jags a supreme advantage in the event of a 9-7 tiebreaker scenario, as long as they don't lose to Miami.
New England can clinch the AFC East by winning as many or more games than Miami, and as few as one less than the Jets. Miami can clinch by winning one more than the Pats, especially if New England loses to the Bills. There are other things in play for that last scenario, but let's pretend.
Cincinnati can clinch the AFC North by winning once.
San Diego can clinch the AFC West by keeping pace with Denver. Denver can clinch somehow, but they're assholes so fuck those guys.
Finally, Indy can clinch homefield advantage for sure with 2 wins, or 1 win and a loss by Cincy/SD. Wade through that as you will.
- Matt
EDIT: The Steelers are effectively eliminated from playoff contention. It will be official once the Broncos and Jags win two each. 9-7 with a 6-6 AFC record and 2-4 maximum divisional record just doesn't seem even close to adequate.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Playoffs?!?
Will won't write about the wild card race, though it's more relevant to his team, so I guess I will.
So far, we have this:
5. Denver, 8-4 (6-3)
6. Jacksonville, 7-5 (6-2)
7. Baltimore, 6-6 (6-4)
8. Miami, 6-6 (4-4)
9. New York Jokes, 6-6 (5-5)
10. Pittsburgh, 6-6 (4-5)
Indy can clinch top AFC seed with 2 wins, San Diego or Cincinnati can clinch the 2nd seed by going 3-1, as long as one of those wins is against the other team. New England can clinch the division by... winning out.
Now it gets somewhat tricky. Denver is assured a spot if they go 3-1. While they play Indy and Philly, they have games at home against the Chiefs and Raiders. This season isn't locked up just yet, but it's close.
Jacksonville has perhaps the hardest schedule down the stretch. 3 playoff teams in a row: Miami, Indy, New England. Then the Browns. 1-3 is a very real possibility. That first game is the key. Win that, and it's possible to make the postseason at 9-7 and give either SD or CIN an easy first round win.
Baltimore is in a decent position. 3 of their games are easy: Detroit, Chicago, Oakland (don't give me that 'they beat the Steelers' crap; just don't give them any motivation). The game against the Steelers decides how their season ends up. If Pittsburgh continues its collapse, and especially if Dixon starts again, the Ravens could have the easiest remaining sked of anyone.
Miami, as mentioned before, needs to beat the Jags to have a prayer. 3 games against the "lesser" AFC South teams, then end the season at home against the Steelers. It's very possible that game determines the 6th seed in the AFC. Just as easily could go 1-3. No clue on this team.
New York. Needs to win out to make it, and get some help. Nothing else to say.
Pittsburgh. Ah, the Steelers. The cockroach of the NFL. Just when you think it's all over for them, they turn around and pull together a winning streak. They play the Browns in like 3 minutes, and despite injuries it'll be an easy win. Next, the Packers at home, which is likely their hardest remaining game. Then the Ravens. End the season with Miami. Polamalu is due back against GB, which is bad news for any other team. If the Steelers don't win out, they're toast. 7-5 in the AFC is their best possible, and the Jags will most likely achieve 8-4. I fully expect this team to make the playoffs.
Prediction:
5. Pittsburgh (10-6, 7-5)
6. Denver (10-6, 8-4) [head to head tiebreaker]
7. Jacksonville (9-7, 8-4)
8. Baltimore (9-7, 7-5)
9. Miami (8-8, 6-6)
10. Who cares.
- Matt
So far, we have this:
5. Denver, 8-4 (6-3)
6. Jacksonville, 7-5 (6-2)
7. Baltimore, 6-6 (6-4)
8. Miami, 6-6 (4-4)
9. New York Jokes, 6-6 (5-5)
10. Pittsburgh, 6-6 (4-5)
Indy can clinch top AFC seed with 2 wins, San Diego or Cincinnati can clinch the 2nd seed by going 3-1, as long as one of those wins is against the other team. New England can clinch the division by... winning out.
Now it gets somewhat tricky. Denver is assured a spot if they go 3-1. While they play Indy and Philly, they have games at home against the Chiefs and Raiders. This season isn't locked up just yet, but it's close.
Jacksonville has perhaps the hardest schedule down the stretch. 3 playoff teams in a row: Miami, Indy, New England. Then the Browns. 1-3 is a very real possibility. That first game is the key. Win that, and it's possible to make the postseason at 9-7 and give either SD or CIN an easy first round win.
Baltimore is in a decent position. 3 of their games are easy: Detroit, Chicago, Oakland (don't give me that 'they beat the Steelers' crap; just don't give them any motivation). The game against the Steelers decides how their season ends up. If Pittsburgh continues its collapse, and especially if Dixon starts again, the Ravens could have the easiest remaining sked of anyone.
Miami, as mentioned before, needs to beat the Jags to have a prayer. 3 games against the "lesser" AFC South teams, then end the season at home against the Steelers. It's very possible that game determines the 6th seed in the AFC. Just as easily could go 1-3. No clue on this team.
New York. Needs to win out to make it, and get some help. Nothing else to say.
Pittsburgh. Ah, the Steelers. The cockroach of the NFL. Just when you think it's all over for them, they turn around and pull together a winning streak. They play the Browns in like 3 minutes, and despite injuries it'll be an easy win. Next, the Packers at home, which is likely their hardest remaining game. Then the Ravens. End the season with Miami. Polamalu is due back against GB, which is bad news for any other team. If the Steelers don't win out, they're toast. 7-5 in the AFC is their best possible, and the Jags will most likely achieve 8-4. I fully expect this team to make the playoffs.
Prediction:
5. Pittsburgh (10-6, 7-5)
6. Denver (10-6, 8-4) [head to head tiebreaker]
7. Jacksonville (9-7, 8-4)
8. Baltimore (9-7, 7-5)
9. Miami (8-8, 6-6)
10. Who cares.
- Matt
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)