Hate Expectations

As an O's fan, I can safely say I've enjoyed seeing McPhail make moves and cause a splash in the sports media. Yet, I also know that thinking the Orioles will be contenders this year is a joke at best. And if you're like me, you're staring at the depth chart on the Orioles' homepage, trying to figure out just how much you should expect from this team.

No? Well, fuck you too, buddy.

Anyway, I decided to use pseudo-scientific bullshit to put some numbers on said expectations, just to see some tangible statistic. What I'm doing is no different than ESPN's writers, I'm just admitting it's bullshit. Anyway, I only applied this to the batting stats, since it's impossible to tie down 5 starting pitchers for the O's this year.

1. Brian Roberts: 100 R, 170 H, 45 2B, 5 3B, 8 HR, 55 RBI, 70 BB, 85 SO, 40 SB, .290 AVG, .360 OBP

2. Adam Jones: 75 R, 140 H, 25 2B, 8 3B, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 30 BB, 120 SO, 13 SB, .275 AVG, .320 OBP

3. Nick Markakis: 120 R, 190 H, 50 2B, 2 3B, 28 HR, 100 RBI, 110 BB, 110 SO, 12 SB, .310 AVG, .415 OBP

4. Aubrey Huff: 90 R, 160 H, 40 2B, 2 3B, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 50 BB, 80 SO, 2 SB, .295 AVG, .355 OBP

5. Melvin Mora: 74 R, 140 H, 25 2B, 1 3B, 20 HR, 95 RBI, 45 BB, 80 SO, 4 SB, .280 AVG, .340 OBP

6. Luke Scott: 60 R, 125 H, 30 2B, 3 3B, 25 HR, 75 RBI, 50 BB, 100 SO, 2 SB, .260 AVG, .340 OBP

7. Cesar Izturis: 50 R, 120 H, 10 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 25 RBI, 30 BB, 20 SO, 26 SB, .270 AVG, .325 OBP

8. Gregg Zaun: 40 R, 75 H, 15 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 60 BB, 50 SO, 3 SB, .240 AVG, .345 OBP

9. Felix Pie: 50 R, 70 H, 10 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 35 RBI, 25 BB, 40 SO, 20 SB, .260 AVG, .330 OBP

As you can see, I'm expecting improved performance from last year from B-Rob, Jones, Markakis, Izturis, and Pie. The others aren't getting any younger, but they're not going to be suffering a huge drop-off, exactly. Still, overall batting performance from the starters will be better than last year. We'll see how close reality is to these estimates. In the end, I'm seeing the O's end up with 75 wins. Whatever.

- Matt