Curse of the President's Trophy

Once Colorado beat San Jose in overtime last night, the President's Trophy was awarded to the Washington Capitals, who still have 4 games to play. It's the earliest the trophy's been awarded since 2006, when the Red Wings won it with 124 points. It is the first such trophy in Capitals history.

But the success rate of these winners is, shall we say, lacking. The trophy has been awarded 23 times before this year, yet only 7 of those teams have won the Stanley Cup in the same year. The last to do so were the Red Wings in 2008.

But even getting to the big game requires some luck. Only two additional teams, for a total of 9 out of 23, have even made it the Cup finals. Boston fell to the Oilers in 1990 and the Red Wings lost to Jersey before their back to back championships. 9/23 is less than 40%.

Yet more frustrating is the early round losses (first or second). 9 out of 23 times, including 4 in the very first round, have resulted in disappointment to the highest degree. So a President's Trophy winner is equally likely to lose in the first couple of rounds as it is to make it to the finals.

Most disturbing of all is the recent trends. I mentioned the Red Wings did win the Cup in 2008, but the other three teams since the lockout, which represents the most relevant metric for current success, fared very poorly. Of them, Buffalo did the best with 9 playoff wins. San Jose was brushed aside by Anaheim in the first round last season, and Detroit was felled by eventual runner-up (though 8th-seeded) Edmonton in 2006. So, since the lockout, there's an even smaller rate of success for the Cup than in previous years. Blame parity, I suppose.

Washington is only the seventh of 24 winners to be from the Eastern Conference. The success rate is even lower than the other numbers for the EC, at just one of six. At least no Trophy winner from the East has ever lost in the opening round. Still, that's not a precedent the Caps would like to set. The Rangers, who are putting together a small winning streak, almost ended the Caps' season prematurely last spring. Is anyone in DC enthused at the prospect of playing a good defensive team entering the postseason on a hot streak?

Still, as far as curses go, this ranks between the Philadelphia skyline curse and the Madden curse in terms of validity. As a Pens fan, I certainly hope it claims another victim this year.

- Matt