Conference Semifinals

So.

As I always say, the better team always wins a 7-game series. I was not at all surprised by Detroit's crushing victory. The Canadiens' win, however, shocked me in a way that I've never experienced before. If I had been 24 in 1993 when David FUCKING Volek broke my heart, that'd be the only thing to beat last night's game. And yet it's still my first sports memory. Gay.

Now, onto the next round:


(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings

A matchup everyone but me saw coming. Not too much to say other than "who blows this series first - the Sharks because they're chokers, or the Wings because they're old?". And I know it was made fun of on Puck Daddy to bring this up, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Mega Shark vs. Giant Octopus:



Anyway.

Prediction: Wings in 6. I'm being generous to the Sharks here.


(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (3) Vancouver Canucks

I wish I could get excited about this matchup. I really do. It's quickly developing into the Caps vs. Pens of the West. Maybe that's why I'm bored of it already.

No read on this one. Luongo won the gold, but he's still an NHL playoffs joke until proven otherwise. The Hawks could be lights out or implode faster than the Republican Party. I'm going to start with "goes to game 7" and pick from there. Flipping a coin, I get the Hawks. Why not.

Prediction: Blackhawks in 7


(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens

Oh man. Who saw this coming? One of the reasons the Caps choked against the Habs is because they didn't choose their shots so much as fire everything they could on net. One of Penguins' fans biggest complaints about the team is that they don't shoot enough. In this series, that's going to be a good thing.

In hindsight, the Habs played much like the Sens did, only they had worse D and better goaltending. The Habs weren't hit much, either. One can only imagine how being annihilated by players like Adams and Kunitz (if healthy) will have on them over a 7 game series. At any rate, it'll be an interesting comparison of styles.

Prediction: Pens in 6. Habs have enough in them to steal a couple games.


(6) Boston Bruins vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers

Meh. Both teams rock-solid at home. Based on that...

Prediction: Bruins in 7.

- Matt

Game 7 on the Edge of Forever

I had believed two of the first round series would go seven games. Only I picked the Kings and Bruins to win their contests in 7. Obviously, this is not the case. I never imagined the Wings and Caps would have such difficulty beating inferior opponents. For the Wings, let's chalk it up to old age and having played more games than anyone else by a long shot the last 4 years. For the Caps, well, they seem to enjoy making their own playoff lives difficult. Fourth straight series going to game 7. 1-2 so far, despite having home ice all three times. You know the numbers by now.

Anyway, what can we expect tonight and tomorrow night?


Detroit @ Phoenix:

* Howard's "they got lucky" quote may come back to bite him, and his team, in the ass.

* If Shane Doan does return, make the Yotes a lock to win the game.

* Detroit cares not for home ice "advantage".

* The fate of Phoenix, as always, rests with Ilya Bryzgalov. Can he channel Jaroslav Halak for one evening?

Prediction: The feisty Coyotes have certainly made this matchup sporting, but in the end, the superior team always wins a seven game series.

Detroit 5, Phoenix 2


Montreal @ Washington

* The Caps got caught looking ahead, which is actually a first for them. Their last two opening rounds, they trailed 3-1 before losing the first time and winning the second.

* Montreal needs Jaroslav Halak to be as good as the last game. And the defense needs to not let the Caps get so many shots on net. There's only so much one man can do.

* Plenty of bulletin board given by the Caps to Montreal after last night's game. And through the series. Suddenly, cookie-cutter answers given to the media don't sound so bad after all...

* Montreal, if they get another early lead, can't rest on their heels again. The past two games, they were almost damned by it. Halak bailed them out big-time. Lightning can't strike thrice... the Habs need a complete game to take the series.

Prediction: Man, Montreal has given quite a fight up to this point. But this is where it ends. The Caps are simply too good to lose to a team like the Habs in a seven-game series. As I said before, the better team ALWAYS wins. The Caps will prove they are the better team, and DC will breathe a collective sigh of relief.

Capitals 5, Canadiens 1

- Matt

Your Apparently Weekly NHL Post

First off, great to see the Pens break some hearts in Ottawa. Another great comeback win, and now a bit of a rest before the next round. Of the remaining field, they can still face anyone but Washington, keeping Gary Bettman's wet dream of a Caps-Pens ECF still alive.

And how about the Flyers losing Carter and Gagne? Right as they deliver the knockout blow to the Devils, they lose their chance of beating anyone in the second round. If you don't think Washington was looking ahead to the Flyers in their last game, you don't know the Caps.

And of course, the Sharks won. Shouldn't be a surprise, but it is. My only regret is that Brandon Yip will not be in the later rounds.

Let's see where we stand:


(1) Washington @ (8) Montreal

Habs are screwed. Neither Canadian team in the East has managed to win a single home game. The Habs have been outscored 11-4 at home thus far. Still, they've played very well in DC. You could say that the fans of both teams have little tolerance for losing, so it puts the home team in the pressure spot. This is why the Caps won't let it come back home.

Prediction: Caps in 6, winning on Monday 5-2


(3) Buffalo @ (6) Boston

Amazing how everyone bashes the Pens for "taking game 5 off" when it still took triple overtime to beat them. Meanwhile, Boston completely shit the bed in their game 5, and then showed that the Sabres were in their head late. Boston hasn't exactly been lights out at home, but this series has been pretty unpredictable thus far. It's almost certain Pittsburgh plays the winner, so I hope they go 7. And I think they will.

Prediction: Bruins in 7, still


(2) Chicago @ (7) Nashville

Ah, Nashville. You've put up an excellent fight thus far. But Rinne is finally looking vulnerable. And we all know Hossa can only lose in the Stanley Cup Finals. It looks like the Preds won't get the chance to break their record of 2 wins in a single postseason. At least the various would-be owners of the team that are now in prison aren't missing much.

Prediction: Hawks win game 6 (still), 3-1


(3) Vancouver @ (6) Los Angeles

My faith in "Kings in 7" is still there, but much shakier. The Kings let their game get away from them the last two matchups. They need to show they can fight for their lives to be much of anything in this season, and if they lose tonight, they wouldn't have had enough to really compete anyway. Guess I'll stay the course.

Prediction: Kings in 7, still


(4) Phoenix @ (5) Detroit

Order has been restored. The Wings should walk all over the Yotes tonight in Joe Louis. The team has far too much experience to be caught sleeping like in game 3. I expect the Coyotes to at least make it a little difficult. And I would hope they can still prevail in 7. However, no.

Prediction: Wings win game 6 (still), 4-2

- Matt

NHL First Round, Game 3 Thoughts

After two games, every single lower seed now has home ice advantage. How did this happen? Let's check it out by matchup:


(1) Caps @ (8) Habs

The Canadiens deserve to be up 2-0... almost. They let their tight two-way game control the first 6 periods of this series. Then they got complacent. Forgot what the Caps can do when angry. Moreover, when the Caps came in force they were content to try and hold the lead. You can't do that with an offensive team. You have to make them worry about defense as much as they worry about scoring. The team that plays to not lose, always does.

Revised Prediction: Caps in 5


(2) Devils @ (7) Flyers

I think the Flyers have been hearing too much about their regular season success against New Jersey. Truth be told, the Devils are a good team. I'm less confident that the Devils will win now, and I think tonight's game at 6 should clear things up substantially.

Revised Prediction: Devils in 7


(3) Sabres @ (6) Bruins

At 2-0 Buffalo, I thought my read on this series was terribly wrong. But Boston came through with a gutsy effort to show what I expected to see all along. Now, it's headed back to Boston with a tied series and a rejuvenated B's team. I think the Sabs take a game on the road. but I still stand by my old prediction:

(Not) Revised Prediction: Bruins in 7


(4) Penguins @ (5) Senators

I'm conflicted. On the one hand, losing Leopold is huge. On the other, the Pens look out for blood right now. Their bad luck / bounces continued on Friday night, yet they still pulled out a huge 2-1 victory. This is very reminiscent of the series against the Caps last year, in that if the luck changes, it'll be a lot less close. A Game 3 win will basically determine who wins this series. Me, I think the Pens still take it.

(Not) Revised Prediction: Pens in 6


(1) Sharks @ (8) Avs

Game 2 saw the Sharks showing more heart than I've ever seen in the playoffs. Extra man goal and an OT winner, something I've never expected. Is there any player you fear less in the postseason than Thornton? Maybe Marleau. Anyway, the Avs have to play a better team game if they want to pull out this upset. But the Sharks may actually be a different team this year. Maybe it's all the other favorites choking around the league.

Revised Prediction: Sharks in 6


(2) Hawks @ (7) Preds

Can't say, they've only played one so far. I'll change my prediction all the same:

Revised Prediction: Hawks in 6


(3) Canucks @ (6) Kings

Considering how many people have picked the Canucks to emerge from the WC, I've been a little concerned for my Kings upset pick. Anze Kopitar put those fears to rest last night. By the way, how shitty are Nucks fans? I've become impossibly annoyed with them because of the Olympics, not only for their terrible arena noises (especially the "whoo whoo" one), but also the way they treat opposing teams' players. It's like Philly, but Canada. After Kopi scored the GWG last night, a noticeable "Anze Sucks!" chant could be heard on the CBC feed. Dear Vancouver - keep in mind how well that works when Philly does it to another team's best player.

(Not) Revised Prediction: Kings in 7


(4) Coyotes @ (5) Red Wings

I'll give Phoenix credit. They've shown a lot more guts than I thought they would so far. Detroit has really had to work to stay in this series. Phoenix looks like they could wear down the old Wings, making them vulnerable in round 2. Here's hoping.

Revised Prediction: Wings in 6


- Matt

WCQ Preview

Part 2 of the one-part series.


(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Colorado Avalanche

I'm through expecting anything of the Sharks. And yet, they always have so much talent that you can't just write them off in the first, or even second round, depending on matchup. And I like the Avs, but I just don't think they're riding into the playoffs on a good enough wave to beat the Sharks. And it can't get any worse than last year for them, so they'll be playing with nothing to lose.

Prediction: Sharks in 5


(2) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Nashville Predators

Can't bother to see how the season series went. I'm surprised Nashville still exists. I'd say this closely resembles last year's WAS-NYR matchup, but that point's been made by smarter people I'm sure. And Ellis is no Lundqvist.

Prediction: Hawks in 5


(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) Los Angeles Kings

Hoo boy. This series is wide-open. I'm not surprised the two dark horses matched up in the first round. I thought St. Louis would at least win a game in last year's playoffs, but the Canucks sure stifled that prospect. I'm going to say it: I don't think the Canucks are very good. And LA beat them 8-3 recently. So my requisite upset for the WC lies here.

Prediction: Kings in 7


(4) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings

Detroit looked an awwwwful lot like the Pens last year heading down the home stretch. Unfortunately for the Wings, youthful exuberance is not on their side. Phoenix is finally in a position to wreak havoc, but just their luck they got the hardest lower seed opponent in the NHL. This is going to be depressing for everyone but Wings fans and Wayne Gretzky, who might deserve whatever the Razzies equivalent to the Jack Adams is.

Prediction: Wings in 6


That's the previews. On Friday I should recap all the games and offer prospects for how the series should shape up from there. I feel like I'll have a much better grasp of the playoffs once these teams actually interact.

Fuck the Sens.

- Matt

ECQ Preview

That's Eastern Conference Quarterfinals to you.


(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens

The season series wrapped up 2-2, which makes for probably the best record against the Caps in the regular season of anyone. Still, don't be fooled. To beat the Caps, you need to knock their skill players (Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Green) off the puck to render them ineffective. While the Habs aren't Verne Troyer-sized by any means, they are a very small team. Don't expect much of a series.

Prediction: Caps in 4


(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers

5-1, Flyers. Ouch. Pretty surprising, all things considered. Honestly, I don't know what to make of this series. I think the Flyers are fading fast, and I believe the Devils can get over the hump against the Flyers to move on in the playoffs. Nothing else to say.

Prediction: Devils in 6


(3) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) Boston Bruins

The matchup to watch, for sure. I can see all types of results playing out for this one. Boston is really starting to gel, and could be this year's Carolina. However, Miller is a better goaltender than Rask, and only Boston's D has the advantage in this matchup. The playoff push may have gassed the Bruins, but I'm obligated to pick an upset in the EC. And I can't bet against the Pens yet.

Prediction: Bruins in 7


(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Ottawa Senators

So. 3rd time in 4 years. One series taken by either team. I think the quick strikes are over, and we should get ready for a marathon. No matter who survives this matchup, it's going to wear down the victor a considerable amount. Sens are out Kovalev and Kuba, but Phillips and Volchenkov have been instrumental in holding Sidney Crosby to his lowest point average against ANY Eastern team. But with Malkin and Staal playing as well as they are, it's hard to see the Senators definitively having an answer for the Pens. It's all on the Pittsburgh D to not leave Fleury out to hang.

Prediction: Penguins in 6


Western Conference preview later today. Maybe.

- Matt

Curse of the President's Trophy

Once Colorado beat San Jose in overtime last night, the President's Trophy was awarded to the Washington Capitals, who still have 4 games to play. It's the earliest the trophy's been awarded since 2006, when the Red Wings won it with 124 points. It is the first such trophy in Capitals history.

But the success rate of these winners is, shall we say, lacking. The trophy has been awarded 23 times before this year, yet only 7 of those teams have won the Stanley Cup in the same year. The last to do so were the Red Wings in 2008.

But even getting to the big game requires some luck. Only two additional teams, for a total of 9 out of 23, have even made it the Cup finals. Boston fell to the Oilers in 1990 and the Red Wings lost to Jersey before their back to back championships. 9/23 is less than 40%.

Yet more frustrating is the early round losses (first or second). 9 out of 23 times, including 4 in the very first round, have resulted in disappointment to the highest degree. So a President's Trophy winner is equally likely to lose in the first couple of rounds as it is to make it to the finals.

Most disturbing of all is the recent trends. I mentioned the Red Wings did win the Cup in 2008, but the other three teams since the lockout, which represents the most relevant metric for current success, fared very poorly. Of them, Buffalo did the best with 9 playoff wins. San Jose was brushed aside by Anaheim in the first round last season, and Detroit was felled by eventual runner-up (though 8th-seeded) Edmonton in 2006. So, since the lockout, there's an even smaller rate of success for the Cup than in previous years. Blame parity, I suppose.

Washington is only the seventh of 24 winners to be from the Eastern Conference. The success rate is even lower than the other numbers for the EC, at just one of six. At least no Trophy winner from the East has ever lost in the opening round. Still, that's not a precedent the Caps would like to set. The Rangers, who are putting together a small winning streak, almost ended the Caps' season prematurely last spring. Is anyone in DC enthused at the prospect of playing a good defensive team entering the postseason on a hot streak?

Still, as far as curses go, this ranks between the Philadelphia skyline curse and the Madden curse in terms of validity. As a Pens fan, I certainly hope it claims another victim this year.

- Matt