Just detailed the likelihood of teams making the playoffs in my last real post, now it's time to see how close the other teams are to the brink, whether good or bad.
Cleveland and Kansas City are already eliminated.
A win by Jacksonville eliminates Buffalo and Oakland. A loss doesn't immediately eliminate Oakland, but it does eliminate Buffalo based on conference record.
A Houston and/or Tennessee loss and Jacksonville win eliminates them from the playoffs. Their abysmal division records come into play here.
The following can't have their fates altered this week, but let's talk about them anyway:
Baltimore, Miami, New York and Pittsburgh are effectively eliminated by 1 more loss. It's still technically possible to clinch at 9-7 or 9-6-1, but the odds are stacked against them. Baltimore with the 6-4 AFC record has the best shot of the bunch to get in at 9-7.
Two Denver wins, two Jacksonville losses, and a Miami loss clinch a playoff berth for the Broncos. At 10-6 with a minimum of a 7-5 conference record, and the fact that only one of PIT/BAL can get to 10-6, they would achieve no worse than 6th.
Three Jacksonville wins clinch a playoff berth. That would ensure no worse than 9-3 in the AFC. Two wins would give the Jags a supreme advantage in the event of a 9-7 tiebreaker scenario, as long as they don't lose to Miami.
New England can clinch the AFC East by winning as many or more games than Miami, and as few as one less than the Jets. Miami can clinch by winning one more than the Pats, especially if New England loses to the Bills. There are other things in play for that last scenario, but let's pretend.
Cincinnati can clinch the AFC North by winning once.
San Diego can clinch the AFC West by keeping pace with Denver. Denver can clinch somehow, but they're assholes so fuck those guys.
Finally, Indy can clinch homefield advantage for sure with 2 wins, or 1 win and a loss by Cincy/SD. Wade through that as you will.
- Matt
EDIT: The Steelers are effectively eliminated from playoff contention. It will be official once the Broncos and Jags win two each. 9-7 with a 6-6 AFC record and 2-4 maximum divisional record just doesn't seem even close to adequate.
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